Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide by Mary A. Meyer

By Mary A. Meyer

Professional judgment is precious for assessing items, structures, and occasions for which measurements or try out effects are sparse or nonexistent. Eliciting and interpreting professional Judgment: a pragmatic consultant takes the reader step-by-step during the ideas of eliciting and reading specialist judgment, with precise awareness given to aiding the reader boost elicitation tools and instruments adaptable to a number of certain events and paintings components. The research systems offered within the ebook may possibly require a easy figuring out of data and chances, however the authors have supplied unique motives of the concepts used and feature taken distinct care to outline all statistical jargon. initially released in 1991, this ebook is designed in order that these accustomed to using professional judgment can speedy locate the cloth acceptable for his or her complex heritage.

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Eliciting and Analyzing Expert Judgment: A Practical Guide (ASA-SIAM Series on Statistics and Applied Probability)

Professional judgment is priceless for assessing items, platforms, and occasions for which measurements or try effects are sparse or nonexistent. Eliciting and interpreting specialist Judgment: a realistic advisor takes the reader step-by-step in the course of the ideas of eliciting and reading professional judgment, with specified cognizance given to assisting the reader advance elicitation equipment and instruments adaptable to a number of designated occasions and paintings components.

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For example, by forecasting the Soviet weapon capabilities for the year 2000, experts can project the weapon needs of the United States for the same period (Meyer, Peaslee & Booker, 1982). • To integrate or interpret existing data. Expert judgment is frequently needed to organize qualitative information or mixtures of qualitative and quantitative data into a framework for making decisions. Qualitative data are any nonnumeric data, such as text on the expert's reasons for giving an answer, or the expert's answer encoded in descriptive categories or preference scales like poor, moderate, and good.

10, 1 on a scale of 10, or 1 in 10 chances. Quantitative response modes are often requested because the numeric data are more easily analyzed than qualitative data. Much of expert judgment is the product of high-level thought processing, also called knowledge-based cognition. By cognition is meant the mental activity that occurs when a person processes information, such as for solving a problem. Knowledge-based cognition is the high-level interpretive or analytic thinking that we do when confronted with new and uncertain decision situations (Dougherty, Fragola & Collins, 1986, p.

Knowledge-based cognition is the high-level interpretive or analytic thinking that we do when confronted with new and uncertain decision situations (Dougherty, Fragola & Collins, 1986, p. 4-2) Thus, knowledge-based cognition is often invoked by the situations for which expert judgment is sought. The quality of expert judgment varies according to how the data are gathered; the data can be obtained in a variety of ways, ranging from the unconscious to the deliberate. Expert judgment can be gathered unconsciously, as often occurs in technical projects.

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